Monday, August 29, 2005

Draft Analysis

Saturday was They Speak English in What? draft day, the highlight of the fantasy football season! All of the general managers were in attendance for the big event. How did they do? The following is my evaluation of the winners and losers of each round, as well as a look at the big questions that loom as the season approaches.

Round 1 - No big surprises. Running backs are at a premium in our league, and the top eight on the board are all taken in the first round.

1. L. Tomlinson - Triple 20 (Andrew)
2. P. Holmes - Bacon Tastes Good (Scott)
3. S. Alexander - Confused (Lisa)
4. E. James - Rapscallions (Dan)
5. C. Dillon - G Dogz (Gina)
6. W. McGahee - Whoosh (Jeremy)
7. D. McAllister - Loco Moco (Hubert)
8. J. Lewis - Porkchops Taste Good (Chang)

Best Pick: Jamal Lewis. Great running back + terrible quarterback + great defense = 2,000 yards. The Ravens' passing game stinks, but they will be in every game because of their defense, which means lots of rushes for Jamal, who has proven that he can gain huge yardage without a viable passing game. He thrives on eight in the box. He's strong enough to break through to the second level and fast enough to run clear once he gets there.

Worst Pick: No one. Barring injuries, all eight of these guys should clear 1,600 total yards and 16 total touchdowns. History tells us some won't make it, but at this point, they all look good.

Big Question: How will Willis McGahee handle eight in the box this year? J.P. Losman doesn't scare anyone, so defenses will be looking to stop McGahee. Will he be another Jamal, or another Portis?

Round 2 - Manning is still available!

9. D. Davis - Porkchops Taste Good
10. P. Manning - Loco Moco
11. R. Moss - Whoosh
12. M. Harrison - G Dogz
13. K. Jones - Rapscallions
14. R. Johnson - Confused
15. J. Jones - Bacon Tastes Good
16. C. Portis - Triple 20

Best Pick: Peyton Manning. Despite the premium on running backs, most of us still figured Peyton would go in the first round. The guy threw 49 touchdown passes last year. He's probably good for another 40 this year. Julius Jones at 15 is also very good value. Coach Parcells loves the running game.

Worst Pick: Clinton Portis. He was a great running back in Denver, but so was Olandis Gary. In his first year in Washington, he had a 3.8 yards-per-carry average (versus 5.5 in two years with Denver). His o-line is marginal, and he faces a lot of eight-man fronts. In Denver, his o-line was one of the best in the league, and he never faced eight-man fronts. He'll still gain plenty of yards because the Redskins' passing game stinks so badly, but with that kind of average, he won't be seeing the endzone much.

Big Question: Will Moss' numbers be hurt by going from Culpepper to Collins? Probably not. In fact, his numbers usually went up when he played with scrubs like Gus Frerotte or Jeff George, because they were more likely to panic and throw it up for grabs in Moss' direction than properly run through their check-downs. But change is change, so we'll see what happens.

Round 3 - Attention, Andrew! TO is still one the board! Oops...too late.

17. T. Holt - Triple 20
18. T. Owens - Bacon Tastes Good
19. D. Culpepper - Confused
20. T. Barber - Rapscallions
21. B. Westbrook - G Dogz
22. S. Jackson - Whoosh
23. A. Green - Loco Moco
24. C. Johnson - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Ahman Green. This guy was the consensus #3 overall pick last year. Injuries slowed him down last year, but they can slow anyone down in a given year. Talent-wise, and in Green Bay's offense, he's a top ten fantasy back. I was sad to just miss out on him.

Worst Pick: Torry Holt. Just because Andrew didn't realize that TO was still on the board. Torry will still put up solid numbers and is nothing to be sad about.

Big Question: How much will TO's preseason antics affect his regular season numbers? If his first preseason game was any indication, not much.

Round 4 - The top-tier tight ends both come off the board, though I don't think I'm happy to get one of them.

25. T. Gonzalez - Porkchops Taste Good
26. L. Jordan - Loco Moco
27. C. Martin - Whoosh
28. D. Brees - G Dogz
29. A. Johnson - Rapscallions
30. J. Walker - Confused
31. A. Gates - Bacon Tastes Good
32. R. Wayne - Triple 20

Best Pick: Andre Johnson. I'm kicking myself for not taking him at 25. He's Carr's favorite target, great on the goalline, and just starting to hit his prime.

Worst Pick: Drew Brees. He should put up solid numbers, but he likely would have been available in a much later round. Trent Green didn't go until round 9! And is Drew better than Donovan?

Big Question: Is Lamont Jordan a lead back? Magic 8-Ball says...outlook hazy.

Round 5 - So many quarterbacks left! Could it be that people saw me win the championship last year with Billy Freakin' Volek and realized they aren't that important?

33. T. Bell - Triple 20
34. J. Horn - Bacon Tastes Good
35. H. Ward - Confused
36. W. Dunn - Rapscallions
37. D. Jackson - G Dogz
38. D. McNabb - Whoosh
39. N. Burleson - Loco Moco
40. A. Boldin - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Donovan McNabb. Now that TO is back, McNabb is a nice pick-up in Round 5.

Worst Pick: Tatum Bell. Blecch. Too early to take a chance on a guy who might eventually be a starter. There were too many other clear #1 RB's still available.

Big Question: Who is Warner's number one target, Boldin or Fitzgerald? Please be Boldin, please be Boldin, please be Boldin...

Round 6 - The first rookie is off the board.

41. M. Anderson - Porkchops Taste Good
42. C. Williams - Loco Moco
43. Ro. Williams - Whoosh
44. K. Barlow - G Dogz
45. M. Bulger - Rapscallions
46. D. Foster - Confused
47. M. Vick - Bacon Tastes Good
48. Mi. Clayton - Triple 20

Best Pick: Mike Anderson. The starting Broncos running back can always be counted on for huge numbers, no matter who it is. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Quentin Griffin, Rueben Droughns. And this year, it's Anderson again. In his last season as the starter, his rookie year, he had 1,700 total yards and 15 touchdowns. In his most recent preseason game, he had 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. In the first half. Okay, it was against Indianapolis, and it was only the preseason, and most of the yards came on one run. But for a 6th rounder, Anderson is a steal.

Worst Pick: Michael Vick. Most exciting player in the league. Check. Leads his team to victories. Check. Gains an inordinate number of rushing yards for a quarterback. Check. But he has only 49 total touchdowns in 43 games! That is terrible for fantasy. And he's a turnover machine. Maybe this is his breakout year, but that's hard to fathom considering the Falcon's playing style. And I know of what I speak. I've been the sucker to draft him the last two years.

Big Question: How much of the load is DeShaun Foster going to carry? At this point, it looks like he'll be sharing pretty evenly with Stephen Davis.

Round 7 - The first defense gets taken.

49. J. Arrington - Triple 20
50. F. Taylor - Bacon Tastes Good
51. A. Crumpler - Confused
52. S. Smith - Rapscallions
53. J. Witten - G Dogz
54. Baltimore - Whoosh
55. L. Coles - Loco Moco
56. D. Bennett - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Jason Witten. Surrounded by a marginal receiving corps, Witten is good for 1,000 yards and a lot of goalline opportunities. He's the reason I'm kicking myself for taking Tony G instead of Andre Johnson in the 4th round. If I had known that Witten would last this long, I wouldn't have reached for a tight end so early, not even for Gonzo.

Worst Pick: Baltimore. Clearly the #1 fantasy defense, but no one was ready to take a defense yet anyway, so why not pick up another wide receiver or running back?

Big Question: Can Fred Taylor stay healthy? If so, Scott got himself a huge, huge steal.

Round 8 - Gina hasn't drafted Lelie?

57. T. Jones - Porkchops Taste Good
58. A. Lelie - Loco Moco
59. J. Shockey - Whoosh
60. M. Muhammad - G Dogz
61. R. Brown - Rapscallions
62. J. Porter - Confused
63. Atlanta - Bacon Tastes Good
64. L. Fitzgerald - Triple 20

Best Pick: Muhsin Muhammad. He was the top fantasy wide receiver last year. He obviously won't be this year, but he'll be Kyle Orton's favorite (only?) target, and at least the Bears finally came to their senses and realized what I realized my freshman year at Stanford: Hutchinson stinks.

Worst Pick: Atlanta. Still too early for a defense, especially after Baltimore was already taken.

Big Question: With Cedric Benson finally getting into camp, how much will he eat into Thomas Jones' playing time? Damn it, why couldn't Benson just sit out the whole year?!

Round 9

65. E. Johnson - Triple 20
66. C. Chambers - Bacon Tastes Good
67. K. Collins - Confused
68. T. Green - Rapscallions
69. New England - G Dogz
70. P. Burress - Whoosh
71. Pittsburgh - Loco Moco
72. D. Driver - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Eric Johnson. With Tim Rattay back as the starter, Johnson's value goes way up. Rattay loves Johnson. Donald Driver is also a solid pickup in the 9th round.

Worst Pick: Plaxico Burress. As I wrote before, change is change, so maybe this change will be good for him. I'll keep an open mind.

Big Question: What will Randy Moss mean for Kerry Collins' numbers? I'm predicting good things.

Round 10 - Gina gets her Rainbow Warrior.

73. Carolina - Porkchops Taste Good
74. T. Heap - Loco Moco
75. L. Evans - Whoosh
76. J. Elam - G Dogz
77. M. Hasselbeck - Rapscallions
78. Indianapolis - Confused
79. A. Vinatieri - Bacon Tastes Good
80. C. Palmer - Triple 20

Best Pick: Matt Hasselbeck. He's a proven quarterback, and he lasted a surprisingly long time.

Worst Pick: Adam Vinatieri. Okay, we all know why Gina picked Elam this round, but why in the world did Scott pick Vinatieri this early? I guess Gina's pick messed with his head.

Big Question: Will Carson Palmer show huge improvement over a shaky first year? The way he finished last season, things look promising. Pass to Chad Johnson a lot, please!

Round 11

81. T. Brady - Triple 20
82. A. Brooks - Bacon Tastes Good
83. D. Akers - Confused
84. I. Bruce - Rapscallions
85. C. Brown - G Dogz
86. L. Johnson - Whoosh
87. B. Favre - Loco Moco
88. J. Delhomme - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Brett Favre. How does a guy coming off a 4,000 yard/30 touchdown season last this long? Great backup for Peyton Manning.

Worst Pick: David Akers. Still way too early for kickers.

Big Question: Will Jake Delhomme be able to match his 3,900 yards and 30 touchdowns without Muhsin Muhammad? Hopefully Steve Smith's return will help Delhomme maintain the status quo.

Round 12

89. Tampa Bay - Porkchops Taste Good
90. J. Smith - Loco Moco
91. N. Davenport - Whoosh
92. R. Smith - G Dogz
93. J. Plummer - Rapscallions
94. Philadelphia - Confused
95. C. Benson - Bacon Tastes Good
96. T. Houshmandzadeh - Triple 20

Best Pick: Jimmy Smith. Nice job picking up a clear #1 wide receiver this late in the draft.

Worst Pick: T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Andrew already dropped him, so by definition, it was a wasted pick.

Big Question: I hate to be repetitive, but with Benson's late signing, how much playing time can we expect him to get? If he eventually takes over the #1 spot, he'll be a huge steal. If the best he does is break into a shared role with Jones, he won't be of much value. Neither will Jones.

Round 13 - The one where three defenses from the same state are chosen. Or, the one where two running backs from the same team are chosen.

97. J. Bettis - Triple 20
98. New York - Bacon Tastes Good
99. D. Staley - Confused
100. Buffalo - Rapscallions
101. New York - G Dogz
102. S. Moss - Whoosh
103. L. Smith - Loco Moco
104. S. McNair - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: L.J. Smith. He would be a solid starting tight end, but for Hubert he is merely an insurance policy against Todd Heap. The return of TO drops his value somewhat, but he's looked good in the preseason.

Worst Pick: The Steeler running backs. Both are gimpy, and neither will carry the load.

Big Question: Can Steve McNair return to his MVP form of 2003? He's finally healthy after suffering a string of nagging injuries last year, and now he has Norm Chow (agh, still painful) up in the booth calling the plays.

Round 14

105. R. McMichael - Porkchops Taste Good
106. R. Williams - Loco Moco
107. M. Vanderjagt - Whoosh
108. B. Leftwich - G Dogz
109. B. Griese - Rapscallions
110. C. Pennington - Confused
111. D. Graham - Bacon Tastes Good
112. J. Wilkins - Triple 20

Best Pick: Chad Pennington. Now that Laveranues Coles is back in New York and Pennington is healthy again, he should put up solid numbers for a backup quarterback in case Kerry Collins is a bust.

Worst Pick: Ricky Williams. He's useless for four weeks, and even when he gets back, the best he'll do is split time.

Big Question: Is anyone still reading? Will Ricky get traded to a team in need of a lead back? If so, I'll eat my "Worst Pick" words.

Round 15

113. E. Moulds - Triple 20
114. B. Edwards - Bacon Tastes Good
115. D. Branch - Confused
116. E. Kennison - Rapscallions
117. J. Wiggins - G Dogz
118. Seattle - Whoosh
119. S. Janikowski - Loco Moco
120. M. Robinson - Porkchops Taste Good

Best Pick: Braylon Edwards. At this point, you're looking for upside, and he has the most of anyone.

Worst Pick: Marcus Robinson. I already dropped him. What was I thinking? At least I replaced him with Derrick Mason, a #1 wide receiver, albeit for an awful quarterback.

Special mention goes to Andrew, who picked up a wide receiver in the second to last round despite not having picked up a single defense in a league that requires two.

Big Question: Will Sebastian Janikowski stay out of the police blotter? The Raiders will score plenty, but will he be kicking field goals or extra points?

Round 16 - Finally done! And I got my kicker!

121. R. Longwell - Porkchops Taste Good
122. Minnesota - Loco Moco
123. D. Blaylock - Whoosh
124. Cincinnati - G Dogz
125. D. Stallworth - Rapscallions
126. Da. Clark - Confused
127. L. Suggs - Bacon Tastes Good
128. Denver - Triple 20

Best Pick: Lee Suggs. A probable #1 running back with the second-to-last pick of the draft. Nicely done.

Worst Pick: Derrick Blaylock. Part of Jeremy's back-up running back strategy, but this one's the weakest of the bunch. And he could have had Suggs.

Big Question: Now that we made it to the end, how did the GM's grade out on this draft? Stay tuned for the follow-up!

25 Comments:

Blogger Drewby said...

And I quote "The only thing Randy McMichael is on the cusp of is jail."

Nice 14th round pick. =)

Monday, August 29, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

I totally thought of that comment when I made that pick. He's merely a back-up to Gonzo. :)

Monday, August 29, 2005  
Blogger Gina Fujikami said...

So thorough!

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger hubert said...

run ricky, run!

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

He's running to his bong.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Jeremy said...

i didn't count, but i think i got the most "Worst Picks" of anyone

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Anonymous ruth said...

geez so long.

whats a bong

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

What's a bong? LOL! It's a good thing that you're so innocent.

The Sticky Ricky

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

Best Pick:

5 Hubert
2 Chang
2 Dan
2 Gina
2 Scott
1 Andrew
1 Jeremy
1 Lisa

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

Worst Pick:

5 Andrew
3 Jeremy
3 Scott
2 Lisa
1 Chang
1 Gina
1 Hubert

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Anonymous andrew said...

darn, why'd you have to write a review. i'd rather not remember this draft. :p

i can understand being a headcase in sports, but how is it possible to be a headcase in fantasy sports?

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger hubert said...

uh oh, now i might end up losing to the ayeh. don't put so much pressure on me... he's supposed to be the 1 seed!!

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Drewby said...

So you're saying Hubert's stacked (5:1 best:worst) and Andrew blows (1:5).

You gonna sit back and take that Andrew? I wouldn't! Have some Name Pride! =D

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Randy Fish said...

It would be interesting to see a round-by-round "hindsight-is-20-20" wrap up at the end of the season to see if the best and worst picks still hold. Who knows, maybe Andrew's picks will look better by then. :)

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Jeremy said...

that's a good idea randy. chang is thorough enough to do that, too

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

In three months, count on a revisiting of this analysis. I am more than happy to eat crow if I whiff.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Anonymous andrew said...

Nah, I'll admit I made mistakes in the draft, like Holt and Tatum Bell. I should have taken Owens, and I should have nabbed Mike Anderson before Bell, instead of trying to do it the other way around.

As far as my other worst picks, I don't really agree. Portis being the worst pick was a little unfair. I think it's arguable that Portis was the best available RB at that point. I thought Bettis was a fine pick for being so late in the draft. Eric Johnson as a best pick was probably out of pity, if so, i don't want it :p

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger hubert said...

Fine, here's my quick take... overall a fairly solid draft, but my best/worst:

First three rounds very solid (only slight value/reaches):
1) McGahee/Dillon
2) Manning/Harrison (even though I didn't want Peyton)
3) Jackson/Holt (I don't like Ahman)

Noticeable reaches:
4) Walker/Brees
5) McNabb/Bell

Too lazy for any slight commentary:
6) Anderson/Bulger
7) Witten/Baltimore (love the Witten pick)
8) TJones/Porter
9) Green/Chambers (maybe Pitt)
10) Hasselbeck/Kickers
11) Brown(or Favre)/Kicker
12) JSmith/TJ
13) Moss/Staley
14) Ricky/Graham
15) Edwards/Robinson
16) Suggs/Blaylock

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

To be fair, Portis was the last pick of the round, but I would rather have Jackson or Green.

Bettis is at best a splitter, even on the high upside, so I don't see much value in the pick.

EJ wasn't pity. I'm still kicking myself for reaching on Gonzo. Lots of very good tight ends lasted a long time.

If only you had a blog of your own to publish your own evaluations... :)

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

Ricky as best pick of the 14th? LOL!

Otherwise, we mostly agree. :)

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Anonymous andrew said...

Hehe, I knew you were gonna bring up my blog if I responded to your analysis :p Of course, I wouldn't blog about this draft anyway. I made some critical mistakes early that I'd sooner forget about.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger Jeremy said...

man, nobody likes my blaylock pick. watch the trade offers rolling in after injuries bring him into the fold

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Blogger hubert said...

if ricky williams rushes for over 1000 yards, you better eat your shoe.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005  
Anonymous Shugars said...

Dude.
I could be wrong but aren't you a Denver fan?
I was excited with you repping Mike Anderson as a good pick (because I drafted him in my draft) but then remembered you're a hard core Denverite so now I'm confused.
And my cat's breathsmells like cat food.
js

Wednesday, August 31, 2005  
Blogger Chang Kim said...

Mike Anderson should have a huge year if he holds onto the starting spot. All indications are good at this point.

I watched Lisa's Rival with commentary on, and everyone was staking claim to that quote. They acknowledged that it was the most quoted line in the history of the show. :)

Wednesday, August 31, 2005  

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